2018 Midterm Results
Increase in the Likelihood of Voting for a Republican SENATE Candidate in 2018
Increase in the Likelihood of Voting for a Republican SENATE Candidate in 2018
Increase in the Likelihood of Voting for a Republican HOUSE Candidate in 2018
Election Direction
Survey Summary
Advances in social-psychology have taught us that people don’t realize which issues affect their own vote. Thus, traditional polling questions are misleading because they measure what people say is important to them, not what actually influences their choice.
Winning Democratic Votes in 2018: Results from a new social-psychology-based survey that identifies the issues which persuade voters
Election Direction 2018 is a survey which identifies the issues that influence how voters vote so Democratic candidates can win in 2018
The initial survey of 1039 registered voters was conducted in May and June of 2018. It examines how the perceived differences between the candidates across a range of issues affect choice, revealing which messages are best able to generate enthusiasm among Democrats or sway apathetic Republicans, and which messages should be avoided.
GOAL 1: Generate enthusiasm among Democrats
To generate enthusiasm, Democratic candidates should focus on the significant differences between themselves and their Republican opponents on preserving Social Security and addressing women’s concerns. Perceived differences between the candidates on these issues both build Democratic enthusiasm and lower Republican-leaning voters’ enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
Two more strong issues for Democratic candidates are raising the minimum wage and sensitivity to LGBT concerns. These issues build Democratic enthusiasm and do so without increasing Republican-leaning voters’ enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
Maintaining anti-pollution regulations, keeping abortion legal, and outlawing assault rifles also generate Democratic enthusiasm but may be most effective when the voting population already leans Democratic. When Democratic candidates in swing districts focus too
tightly on these issues, they risk generating backlash, that is enthusiasm among Republican voters for Republican candidates.
The survey reveals that Democratic candidates shouldn’t waste their time trying to communicate the difference between them and their opponents on impeaching Trump, legalizing marijuana, or lifting immigration constraints.* Messages about job creation, the corruption of Republicans, and even Obamacare won’t do much to develop voter enthusiasm and should not be the primary focus of a campaign.
* While this survey was conducted before the news coverage around Trump’s family separation policy, results suggests that Democrats should not let Republicans frame the discussion around “immigration”. Rather, Democratic candidates should speak of “taking children away from their parents” and about Republican candidates’ willingness to accept what should never be acceptable to anyone.
GOAL 2: Sway Apathetic Republican Voters
Convincing apathetic Republicans to vote Democratic requires a different approach to messaging than generating enthusiasm among the Democratic base. For this purpose, Democratic candidates should emphasize their personal qualities like “being in touch with regular people”. They should also talk about those issues that Republican voters can get behind. Democratic candidates should remind voters that, unlike their Republican opponents, they strongly support addressing women’s concerns, preserving Social Security, protecting net neutrality, and ethics in office.
AVOID attempts to win over solid Trump supporters
The survey concludes that people who voted for and support Trump did so because of ethnic insecurity, not because of economic insecurity and not because of the issues. People who agree that, “minorities are becoming too important in this country” are 9 times more likely to have voted for Trump. On the other hand, people who said their personal economic situation is “bad” were less likely to have voted for Trump than people who said their personal economic situation is “good.” Converting solid Trump supporters would mean appealing to their ethnic insecurity and that is not an appropriate or a winning strategy for Democratic candidates.
For more details on the survey setup and background information on survey results for the 2016 election see Survey