Survey Background
See summary results or full Election Direction 2018 survey results in Slideshare
Democratic candidates differ from Republican candidates in many ways.
To persuade voters, which differences should be emphasized?
The usual approach is to ask voters:
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"What’s most important to you?”
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“Why do you prefer …?”
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“How will you choose?”
This usual approach is worse than a waste of time. It is misleading.
Voters don’t realize what affects their preference. Their answers will likely send candidates in the wrong direction.
National Survey of 1039 registered voters
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Conducted by Survey Monkey
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In May and June of 2018
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“Balanced” by age and sex of registered voters according to the U.S. Census
ELECTION
DIRECTION
2018
The Election Direction™️ 2018 survey looks at the relationship between expectations and preference. It reveals the relative impact of 14 issues and 2 personal qualities.
The results allow Democratic candidates to focus on the most important differences between them and their Republican opponents.
Before we look forward to the next election, let’s take a moment to look back at the last election.
People’s recollection of how they voted is often distorted.
When we compare voters’ recollection with the actual national vote…
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People who voted for Trump remember.
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Others seem to wish they had voted for Clinton.
”In the last presidential election,
who did you vote for?”
Why did people vote for Trump?
Two explanations have been suggested:
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Economic insecurity
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Ethnic insecurity
“How would you describe your own personal economic situation?”
People who feel that “minorities are becoming too important in this country” were 9 times more likely to have voted for Trump than people who disagree.
Trump was elected because of ethnic insecurity not economic insecurity.
Looking forward, things look good for Democrats.
“In politics, as of today, what would you consider yourself?”
Those who expect to vote for the Democratic candidate in both the Senate and House elections are defined as Democratic-Leaners for this analysis.
Similarly, those who expect to vote for the Republican candidate in both the Senate and House elections are defined as Republican-Leaners.
Most registered voters are either Democratic-Leaners or Republican-Leaners. Few expect to split their vote.
How people expect to vote in 2018
In each case, respondents were asked, “In your opinion, how likely is it that the candidate, if elected, would …(e.g. preserve Social Security)?”
Respondents chose one:
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“very unlikely”
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“somewhat unlikely”
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“somewhat likely”
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“very likely”
Survey Setup
This analysis focuses on the 97% of respondents who are Democratic-Leaners or Republican-Leaners. Voter preference and enthusiasm are based on the differences people see between the candidates on what they would do on the issues and what they would be like as people.
Election Direction™️ 2018 examines expectations for what the candidates would do if elected on 14 issues presented randomly:
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Oppose the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
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Be sensitive to gay/lesbian concerns
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Relax anti-pollution regulations
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Keep a tight lid on immigration
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Be good for job creation
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Lean toward legalizing marijuana
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Address women’s concerns
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Raise the minimum wage
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Make it harder to buy an assault rifle
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Preserve Social Security
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Keep abortion legal
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Be corrupt in office
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Vote to impeach President Trump
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Protect net neutrality
Expectations on four issues were reversed (e.g. "Oppose Obamacare" became "Support Obamacare") such that a “very likely” response always refers to the more progressive option.
Election Direction™️ 2018 also examines expectations that the candidates would be …
1.“…someone you would like as a person”
2.“…in touch with regular people”